No surprises here. If you’re wondering why Oklahoma gains despite losing to Alabama - Texas beat Georgia.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Clemson (+1)
Alabama (+1)
Notre Dame (-2)
LSU (+2)
UCF (-1)
Oklahoma (+3)
Florida (+1)
Ohio State (+7)
Georgia (-4)
Texas A&M (nc)
Kentucky (+2)
Michigan (-1)
Auburn (+3)
Cincinnati (+5)
Syracuse (+8)
Washington State (+13)
Texas (+13)
Army (+3)
Missouri (-12)
Penn State (-2)
Mississippi State (-9)
NC State (-2)
Iowa (+8)
Stanford (+2)
Duke (+9)
UCF should have gone, and 4 SEC teams are more deserving than Oklahoma.
Also, keep in mind the ranking evaluates the total body of work, as discussed in the explanation. It is not intended to be predictive. Notre Dame has, given the quality of their opponents, the highest value of combined wins. That does not, however, mean Notre Dame is better than Alabama or will beat Alabama.
Also, remember that the network treats all wins, no matter when during the season, equally in calculating their value in the rank. Alabama has the best win in the network (Georgia). However Notre Dame defeated consistently decent (if not as exceptional) teams (Michigan, Wake, Stanford, Pitt, Northwestern, Syracuse), across lots of conferences, providing more extensive evidence to their goodness relative to all NCAA teams, not just within a single conference (though it be the best one). Notre Dame’s unique position as an independent gives it more to gain from cross-conference wins in the ranking, but also more to lose should they stumble (as BYU demonstrates). Further, while Bama had some uniquely good wins, they also had some uniquely worthless ones that didn’t do much to bolster their “total body of work” (Louisiana, Louisville, Arkansas, and Citadel). Those cupcakes have earned Alabama the #3 spot in the Network Ranking.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame
Clemson
Alabama
UCF
Georgia
LSU
Missouri
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Michigan
Mississippi State
Kentucky
South Carolina
Ohio State
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Penn State
Cincinnati
NC State
Army
West Virginia
Syracuse
Utah
Ole Miss
Should-have-been Bowls by Network Ranking:
Orange Bowl - College Football Playoff: Notre Dame v UCF
Cotton Bowl - College Football Playoff: Clemson v Alabama
Sugar - Georgia v Oklahoma
Rose - Washington v Ohio State
Citrus - Michigan v Florida
Fiesta - Missouri v NC State
Outback - Penn State v Texas A&M
Gator - Iowa v South Carolina
Holiday - Michigan State v Stanford
Liberty - TCU v Mississippi State
Redbox - Minnesota v Washington State
Sun - Duke v Arizona State
Military - Boston College v Cincinnati
Arizona - Hawaii v Louisiana
Belk - Virginia v Kentucky
Peach - LSU v Northwestern
Alamo - West Virginia v Utah
Camping World - Syracuse v Texas
Music City - Pitt v Vanderbilt
Texas - Iowa State v Auburn
Pinstripe - Miami v Wisconsin
Independence - Georgia Tech v Army
Cheez-It - Baylor v San Diego State
Quick Lane - Virginia Tech v Purdue
First Responder - Wyoming v BYU
Hawaii - UAB v Utah State
Dollar General - NIU v Arkansas State
Armed Forces - Oklahoma State v Temple
Birmingham - South Florida v Toledo
Bahamas - MTSU v Buffalo
Potato - Ohio v Boise State
Gasparilla - Wake Forest v Marshall
Frisco - Houston v Eastern Michigan
Boca Raton - FIU v Memphis
New Orleans - North Texas v Appalachian State
Camellia - Western Michigan v Georgia Southern
Las Vegas - Fresno State v Oregon
New Mexico - Louisiana Tech v Nevada
Cure - Tulane v Troy
Quite late, but here it is nonetheless.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Clemson (nc)
Alabama (nc)
UCF (+1)
Georgia (+1)
LSU (+1)
Missouri (+1)
Florida (+2)
Oklahoma (nc)
Texas A&M (+3)
Michigan (-7)
Mississippi State (-1)
Kentucky (-1)
Ohio State (+2)
Auburn (nc)
South Carolina (-2)
Vanderbilt (nc)
Penn State (nc)
Cincinnati (nc)
NC State (+1)
West Virginia (-1)
Army (+1)
Syracuse (+6)
Buffalo (+1)
Ole Miss (-1)
No big movements other than Vandy moving positively from defeating Ole Miss. Top 4 remains the same.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Clemson (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan (nc)
UCF (nc)
Georgia (nc)
LSU (nc)
Missouri (nc)
Oklahoma (+1)
Florida (-1)
Mississippi State (+1)
Kentucky (+1)
Texas A&M (+3)
South Carolina (-3)
Auburn (nc)
Ohio State (-2)
Vanderbilt (+11)
Penn State (+1)
Cincinnati (+1)
West Virginia (-2)
NC State (+4)
Washington State (nc)
Army (nc)
Ole Miss (-3)
Buffalo (-8)
UCF hanging out on the bubble, and interestingly, facing the strongest opponent of any of the top four this coming weekend.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Alabama (nc)
Clemson (+1)
Michigan (-1)
UCF (nc)
Georiga (+1)
LSU (-1)
Missouri (+2)
Florida (+3)
Oklahoma (+3)
South Carolina (-2)
Mississippi State (-1)
Kentucky (-5)
Ohio State (+1)
Auburn (-1)
Texas A&M (nc)
Buffalo (+1)
West Virginia (-1)
Penn State (+2)
Cincinnati (+4)
Ole Miss (-1)
Washington State (nc)
Army (+4)
Tennessee (+16)
NC State (-6)
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Alabama (+1)
Michigan (+2)
Clemson (-2)
UCF (+4)
LSU (-2)
Georgia (-1)
Kentucky (-1)
South Carolina (+2)
Missouri (+4)
Mississippi State (-1)
Florida (-4)
Oklahoma (+3)
Auburn (+5)
Ohio State (+2)
Texas A&M (-4)
West Virginia (+13)
Buffalo (nc)
NC State (+1)
Ole Miss (+3)
Penn State (+1)
Washington State (+3)
Vanderbilt (-8)
Cincinnati (+13)
Michigan State (+10)
There are 14 teams in the SEC. 12 are in the Top 25. That is all.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Clemson (nc)
Alabama (nc)
LSU (+1)
Michigan (-1)
Georgia (+3)
Kentucky (nc)
Florida (-2)
UCF (+2)
Mississippi State (+2)
South Carolina (+3)
Texas A&M (-2)
Georgia Southern (+3)
Missouri (+1)
Vanderbilt (+9)
Oklahoma (+1)
Ohio State (+8)
Buffalo (+5)
Auburn (+7)
NC state (-12)
Iowa (-2)
Penn State (+26)
Ole Miss (+8)
Stanford (-4)
Washington State (+3)
Farewell, Ohio State. As we move deeper into conference play, things begin to stabilize, though the top 10 suggests the SEC will be having to sort itself out in the coming weeks. Two items of note - LSU falls despite beating Mississippi State. This is because not as much new information was generated for LSU’s win network as for some of the others, with Mississippi’s State’s biggest win being Auburn, whom LSU already defeated. Likewise, NC state and Mississippi State don’t drop, as the costs of those losses to good teams are not severe. However, losses suffered to more mediocre teams, like Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Ole Miss, cause significant falls in the ranking.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Clemson (+4)
Alabama (+1)
Michigan (+1)
LSU (-2)
Florida (+1)
Kentucky (+1)
North Carolina State (+1)
Georgia (+1)
Texas A&M (+1)
UCF (+2)
Mississippi State (+2)
South Florida (+2)
South Carolina (+3)
Missouri (+6)
Georgia Southern (+4)
Oklahoma (+1)
San Diego State (+4)
Iowa (+4)
Stanford (+5)
Texas (-2)
Washington (+2)
Buffalo (+4)
Vanderbilt (+4)
Ohio State (-23)
Quite a few big changes, mostly as a result of LSU’s defeat of Georgia. Iowa makes big jump thanks to Iowa State’s defeat of West Virginia, while Ole Miss gains from Texas Tech defeating TCU.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Ohio State (+5)
LSU (+3)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan (nc)
Clemson (-4)
Florida (+2)
Kentucky (-4)
NC State (+1)
Georgia (-2)
Texas A&M (nc)
Cincinnati (+1)
UCF (+1)
Mississippi State (+8)
South Florida (nc)
Ole Miss (+12)
South Carolina (+1)
Oklahoma (+5)
Texas (+8)
Georgia Southern (+5)
Missouri (+5)
San Diego State (+9)
Iowa (+13)
Washington (-12)
Stanford (+8)
Big movements with the fall of Oklahoma and LSU - most of all the continued rise of Kentucky despite losing. The loss to A&M hurts Kentucky, but given the Aggies have only lost to undefeated #2 Clemson and undefeated #3 Alabama, it doesn’t hurt much. On the other side, teams that Kentucky had previously beat (Mississippi State, Florida, and South Carolina in particular) had good wins this week, driving Kentucky upward well in excess of the cost of losing to the Aggies. At present, Kentucky has better wins than any team except Notre Dame and Clemson. The Aggies likewise benefit, rising a full 40 spots from last week. It cannot be understated how dramatic an effect the Auburn, LSU, and Oklahoma losses had on the ranking.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (nc)
Clemson (+5)
Alabama (+5)
Kentucky (+5)
Michigan (+8)
LSU (-4)
Ohio State (-2)
Georgia (-1)
Florida (+40)
North Carolina State (+7)
Texas A&M (+40)
Washington (-2)
Cincinnati (+11)
UCF (+37)
South Florida (nc)
Colorado (+37)
West Virginia (-3)
South Carolina (+10)
Miami (-3)
Penn State (-2)
Auburn (-10)
Mississippi State (+37)
Oklahoma (-20)
Texas Tech (+9)
Georgia Southern (+9)
Notre Dame dethrones number 1 and moves into the top spot. Buffalo’s strong start also came to an end Saturday, with a devastating loss to Army. The top 10 or so is getting a bit more stable, but further down still a lot of movement and noise. Among the FBS teams that lost to FCS teams, Temple has fallen out of the top 25, but unfortunately East Carolina has clawed into the top 25 due to a win over ODU, who beat Virginia Tech, who just beat Duke.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame (+7)
LSU (+1)
Oklahoma (+3)
Stanford (-3)
Ohio State (+13)
Clemson (+15)
Georgia (nc)
Alabama (-4)
Kentucky (+6)
Washington (+6)
Auburn (+2)
San Diego State (-1)
Michigan (+19)
West Virginia (+22)
South Florida (+11)
Miami (+15)
NC State (+22)
Penn State (-1)
Syracuse (+7)
East Carolina (+35)
Indiana (+12)
North Texas (-4)
Missouri (+6)
Cincinnati (+11)
Michigan State (nc)
Still a few ties this early, as well as a few teams that lost to FCS opponents but have not yet lost to an FBS opponent (Temple). Stanford rises to the top after defeating Oregon while Duke lags for playing an FCS team. After a rough start with their loss to Auburn, Washington climbs back into the top 25 as they remain undefeated in conference play, and an opportunity for redemption against BYU on Friday.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking):
1. Stanford (+5)
2. Buffalo (+2)
3. LSU (+9)
4. Alabama (-2)
5. Duke (-4)
6. Oklahoma (+7)
7. Georgia (+9)
8. Notre Dame (-6)
9. California (nc)
10. Maryland (+19)
11. San Diego State (+23)
12. Temple (+16)
13. Auburn (+29)
14. Brigham Young (+13)
15. Kentucky (+2)
16. Washington (+41)
17. Penn State (-10)
18. Ohio State (-10)
18. North Texas (+12)
20. Wisconsin (+23)
21. Clemson (-6)
22. Texas (+21)
23. Ole Miss (+18)
24. Texas Tech (+29)
25. Michigan State (+50)
The network ranking is ready a week early this year (all teams have played at least one other FBS team). Duke comes out on top, mostly because they’ve played three games all against FBS opponents. With an FCS team on their schedule this next week, expect them to lag behind others in next week’s ranking, as well as some progress to be made by teams that had cancellations this past week due to Hurricane Florence (notably, Virginia Tech and West Virginia). As a reminder, the ranking is an assessment of the full body of work so far in the season, and FCS wins do not count toward a team’s value. Likewise, neither do the occasional FCS loss (Kansas), but those exceptions tend to take care of themselves as the season progresses. With very few win-loss connections so far, there are lots of ties in the ranking for now.
But, hell of a job so far, Blue Devils.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking):
1. Duke
2. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
4. Buffalo
5. Indiana
6. Stanford
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Army
9. California
11. Oklahoma State
12. LSU
13. Minnesota
13. Oklahoma
15. Clemson
16. Georgia
17, Hawaii
17. Kentucky
19. Boston College
19. Colorado
19. Iowa
19. Kansas
19. Missouri
19. Mississippi State
19. South Florida
19. Washington State
The State of World Liberty Index was a combination of indices compiled originally in 2006 by Nick Wilson. Since then, I've periodically updated the index. My methodology is similar to the original with the following exceptions: I use only the civil liberties portion of Freedom House, economic liberty (Fraser/Heritage) is weighted evenly with social liberty, and the Reporters without Borders Press Freedom Scores are of equal weight to each of the Freedom House Civil Liberties sub-components. All changes are done with the purpose of creating the most accurate relative ranking of countries by the degree of liberty (economic and social) enjoyed by the average individual within the state or territory. Note, the ranking is not reflective of, nor does it include, political or electoral rights. Where data is available, territories or colonies (e.g. Hong Kong) are included.
Finally, added this year is a ranking of the Conservative-Progressive spectrum, where conservative would be very high economic liberty but low social liberty, and progressive would be very high social liberty but low economic liberty. This added dimension allows for grouping states by both freedoms and ideology, such as Moderate Free (New Zealand) and Moderate Tyranny (North Korea), Progressive Free (Norway) and Progressive Tyranny (Venezuela), and Conservative Free (Hong Kong) and Conservative Tyranny (Syria).
Also please note, rankings used to create the below are typically delayed by one to two years. So, they do not reflect any recent events that may have occurred within the past 6-12 months.
Full rankings are here.
2018 Liberty by Quintile. Colors represent countries grouped by quintiles in order of blue (top 20%), green (20-40%), yellow (40-60%), orange (60-80%), and red (80-100%).
2018 Most Free Countries:
1. New Zealand
2. Switzerland
3. Ireland
3. Australia
5. Sweden
5. Norway
5. Netherlands
5. Luxembourg
5. Canada
5. Finland
2018 Most Oppressive Countries:
1. North Korea
2. Syria
3. Venezuela
3. Eritrea
5. Libya
6. Equatorial Guinea
7. Turkmenistan
8. Central African Republic
9. Sudan
10. Ethiopia
10. Iran
10. Uzbekistan
2018 Five Year change in Liberty. Blue is an increase in rank by >20 and green >10 since 2014. Orange is a fall in rank of >10 and red >20 since 2014.
2018 Greatest 5 Year Increases:
1. Sri Lanka
1. Cote d'Ivoire
3. Nepal
4. Latvia
4. Myanmar
4. Zimbabwe
7. Vanuatu
7. Jamaica
7. The Gambia
10. Madagascar
2018 Greatest 5 Year Decreases:
1. Afghanistan
2. Turkey
3. Maldives
4. Libya
5. Lebanon
5. Zambia
7. Djibouti
8. Brunei
9. Thailand
9. Hungary
9. Bahamas
2018 Conservative-Progressive Ranking. Grouped by quintile, red is very conservative, pink is conservative, yellow is neutral, light blue is progressive, and blue is very progressive.
Below image graphs the amount of liberty enjoyed by the average citizen in a state (x-axis) by the balance on whether the state more heavily regulates economic or social behaviors (y-axis).
2018 Most Conservative:
1. Bahrain
2. United Arab Emirates
3. Rwanda
4. Singapore
5. Saudi Arabia
6. Azerbaijan
7. Turkmenistan
7. Qatar
7. Laos
7. Kazakhstan
2018 Most Progressive:
1. Kiribati
1. Argentina
3. Micronesia
4. Barbados
5. Benin
5. Brazil
7. Cabo Verde
8. Dominica
8. Portugal
8. Sao Tome y Principe
UCF - 2017 College Football Champions
As a reminder, this is a ranking of the total body of work for each team from the season. It's not predictive, but it does tell you, based on each team's wins and losses, who had the best overall season.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
The 2017 season has created a lot of potential issues and highlights a lot of potential problems with the current system, almost like Auburn in 2004 being undefeated but not the champion. Normally, an undefeated Group of 5 team isn't that big a deal because 1) they're not the only undefeated and/or 2) the quality of their wins is sufficiently low that the remaining 1 loss teams leapfrog them. That didn't happen this year for two reason: UCF's wins are actually pretty solid (as are Memphis, who doesn't get punished much for losing to the undefeated), and there is relative chaos in the rest of the ranking, at least more so than any year since I started doing this.
A combination of solid wins combined with relative chaos is the exact scenario, and really the only scenario, where we might expect a Group of 5 team to sneak into the top 4 for the playoff committee. That's obviously not going to happen, suggesting that it pretty much won't ever happen under the current system.
Furthermore, what will later be released by the committee will no doubt commit the error of very short memories. Clemson doesn't deserve to go. They lost to Syracuse. SYRACUSE. The idea that the American champ shouldn't go, but some team that lost to Syracuse should, is absolutely mind-boggling. But, humans have very short memories and dramatically overweight the last bit of evidence they remember. Clemson walloped Miami, so I wouldn't be surprised if this team that lost to SYRACUSE was the number one seed going into the playoff.
Also worth noting is that this ranking is about the total body of work, not predicting what will happen. I do the latter with some success from time to time, but not using these rankings (at least not the rankings by themselves). Doing the latter is also dangerous and hopefully not part of the CFPC's calculus (it probably is). That crummy team that lost to Syracuse could very well win the whole thing - still doesn't mean they deserve to be there. So the ranking respects that UCF has the best total body of work. If we're just looking at best wins, and we ignore that teams lose games too, that ranking has (1) Georgia (2) Clemson (3) Notre Dame (4) Wisconsin. The fact that Notre Dame is number three illustrates exactly why we can't excuse Clemson's losses either. By the way, all this same argument applies to Oklahoma. Oh well, the CFPC system is what it is.
In the debate that is likely now occurring with the playoff committee between Ohio State and Alabama for the number 3 spot, it should be Alabama. I have a sneaking suspicion it won't be.
A graph of the network is at the bottom. In particular, interesting how Notre Dame sits in the middle and ties everything together.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking):
The American conference would like to remind everyone that they exist. Excusing UCF's undefeated-ness (and memphis's only loss to UCF), UCF is also a top ten team looking just at their quality of wins (beaten out only by Wisconsin, Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame). Not having those pesky losses helps.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Rankings)
Not much change here, other than Miami moving up ahead of Alabama. You don't get much out of playing the Mercer Bears. The undefeateds stay undefeated with the usual suspects hovering nearby. While the bottom ranked undefeated (UCF) has a lower value for their wins than Notre Dame, Georgia, Penn State, Oklahoma, USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Clemson, Northwestern, and Iowa, none of those one or more loss teams have good enough wins to overcome the negative impact of their losses.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking):
While likely quite different from what many other rankings will have, the top 4 here is straightforward: the four remaining undefeated teams. The problem with the poll based rankings (and I expect the CFPC ranking to be released later) is that they don't look at team's entire body of evidence, just the most sensational thing to happen on Saturday. Teams should be ranked based on their entire body of evidence - not the last thing you can remember.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)
Notre Dame passes Georgia, which is impressive given Georgia subsumes Notre Dame's win network having defeated them. Notre Dame is simply connected to more teams by fewer degrees of separation than Georgia, however, despite that loss, moving the Irish into the number one spot (Georgia is connected to all teams Notre Dame is connected to, via Notre Dame, but all those teams are on degree of separation further from Georgia, increasing their distance, or degrading their value to the ranking).
You'll notice a few other eye-catching things, such as no movement from Ohio State or, similarly, Oklahoma. Because the ranking treats all wins and losses equally, Ohio State's loss to Iowa is being made up for by gains made by the positive improvement of teams Ohio State previously beat. Likewise, defeating Oklahoma State didn't add enough to Oklahoma's win network to keep from being passed up by Iowa, despite Oklahoma State falling behind them.
Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)