Post-Bowl College Football Ranking

Lots of movement, as we’d expect this early in the season. Big jumps by High Point coming in as they continue to win with a minimally harmful loss to undefeated UNLV, and Duke arrives in the top 25 following their victory over Ohio State this week.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Connecticut (nc)
Purdue (nc)
Auburn (nc)
Maryland (+8)
Houston (+11)
Iowa State (+9)
Mississippi State (+4)
Alabama (-1)
St. John’s (+19)
Virginia (+22)
Texas (+10)
Utah State (+13)
UNLV (+1)
Miami (+13)
Illinois (+16)
St. Louis (+20)
New Mexico (+40)
Charleston (-9)
Virginia Tech (+7)
High Point (+138)
Duke (+60)
Kansas (+52)
Arkansas (-13)
Arizona (-19)
UCLA (+9)

Week 14 Network Ranking

December 4, 2022 by Patrick Rhamey

With the losses of both TCU and USC in their conference championships, that leaves open the fourth spot for the playoff. The network gives it to Penn State, who only lost to Michigan and Ohio State. However, it’s pretty impossible the committee will put 3 Big 10 teams in the playoff. After Penn State, USC sits at #5, followed by two-loss Alabama, and then TCU. Experts seem to suggest that TCU will be chosen for the fourth spot, but both USC and Alabama are more deserving.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Georgia (nc)
Michigan (nc)
Ohio State (nc)
Penn State (+1)
USC (+1)
Alabama (+1)
TCU (-3)
Tennessee (nc)
Mississippi State (nc)
UCLA (nc)
Florida State (nc)
Kansas State (+5)
Clemson (+3)
Kentucky (-1)
Texas (nc)
LSU (-4)
Oregon (-3)
Ole Miss (nc)
South Alabama (nc)
Oregon State (nc)
Tulane (+6)
Oklahoma State (-1)
Washington (-1)
Utah (nc)
Notre Dame (-2)

Week 3 NCAAB Network Ranking

November 30, 2022 by Patrick Rhamey

A foray into college basketball for the network ranking! Same rules apply as college football, just a lot more going on with so many more teams - particularly early in the season, as shown in this mess of a network diagram:

Despite the daunting appearance, we can still sort things out using the network of wins and losses. The order is a little different than the AP, but the usual suspects are there.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Connecticut
Purdue
Auburn
Creighton
Arizona
North Carolina
Alabama
Oklahoma
Charleston
Arkansas
Mississippi State
Maryland
Ole Miss
UNLV
Iowa State
Houston
Kansas State
Drake
Sam Houston State
Nevada
Texas
LSU
Davidson
San Diego State
Utah State

Week 13 Network Ranking

November 28, 2022 by Patrick Rhamey

Georgia sits atop the final regular season network ranking, with Michigan and Ohio State swapping order and TCU remaining in the four spot. Ohio State and Penn State are done for the season, and TCU plays a team in the Big 12 Championship they’ve already beat, so none of those teams have any opportunities remaining to gain in the ranking. USC, however, plays the one team they lost to in the regular season (Utah), providing an opportunity to gain. However, the gap between Penn State and USC is significant. While the playoff committee may put USC ahead of Ohio State should they win the PAC 12 Championship, the network is unlikely to agree unless TCU or Michigan lose this Saturday.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Georgia (+1)
Michigan (+1)
Ohio State (-2)
TCU (nc)
Penn State (nc)
USC (+2)
Alabama (-1)
Tennessee (-1)
Mississippi State (+2)
UCLA (+4)
Florida State (+2)
LSU (-3)
Kentucky (+16)
Oregon (-2)
Texas (nc)
Clemson (-6)
Kansas State (+2)
Ole Miss (-2)
South Alabama (+5)
Oregon State (+8)
Oklahoma State (-1)
Washington (+3)
Notre Dame (-6)
Utah (-3)
South Carolina (+5)

Week 12 Network Ranking

November 21, 2022 by Patrick Rhamey

Very late getting started this year, but going into the last week of the regular season, here’s what the Network Ranking has to say about the state of the 2022 season. While there’s a slight difference in the order, the top 4 are the same as the CFPC’s. The bubble, however, is much more interesting. While the loser of Ohio State/Michigan is unlikely to call out of the Network Ranking’s top 4, the CFPC has USC potentially poised to jump into mix after this week. The Network Ranking, however, has USC at a much more distant #8, behind not only Penn State, but both Alabama and Tennessee.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Ohio State
Georgia
Michigan
TCU
Penn State
Alabama
Tennessee
USC
LSU
Clemson
Mississippi State
Oregon
Florida State
UCLA
Texas
Ole Miss
Notre Dame
Washington State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Utah
Florida
Cincinnati
South Alabama
Washington

2022 State of World Liberty Index

May 28, 2022 by Patrick Rhamey

Keep in mind that sources used rank freedoms at a 1-2 year lag, so recent political developments are not captured.

The State of World Liberty Index was a combination of indices compiled originally by Nick Wilson in 2006. Since then, I've annually updated the index. My methodology is similar to the original with the following exceptions: I use only the civil liberties portion of Freedom House, economic liberty (Fraser/Heritage) is weighted evenly with social liberty, and the Reporters without Borders Press Freedom Scores are of equal weight to each of the Freedom House Civil Liberties sub-components. All changes are done with the purpose of creating the most accurate relative ranking of countries by the degree of liberty (economic and social) enjoyed by the average individual within the state or territory. Note, the ranking is not reflective of, nor does it include, political or electoral rights. Where data is available, territories or colonies (e.g. Hong Kong) are included.

Also included is a ranking of the Conservative-Progressive spectrum, where conservative is more economic liberty relative to social liberty, and progressive is more social liberty relative to economic liberty. This added dimension allows for grouping states by both freedoms and ideology, such as Moderate Free (Switzerland) and Moderate Tyranny (Zimbabwe), Progressive Free (Uruguay) and Progressive Tyranny (Venezuela), and Conservative Free (perhaps Hong Kong) and Conservative Tyranny (Myanmar).

Of note, there does not appear to be a dramatic change in the relative ranking due to COVID (though Canada and Australia both fall significantly). There is, however, a notable overall shift toward greater restrictions on social behaviors (e.g. COVID related restrictions on assembly), shifting the distribution in the Conservative-Progressive graph upward for most states.

Full rankings, along with past years, are here: [LINK]

2022 Liberty by Quintile. Colors represent countries grouped by quintiles in order of blue (top 20%), green (20-40%), yellow (40-60%), orange (60-80%), and red (80-100%)

2022 Most Free Countries:

1. New Zealand
2. Switzerland
2. Ireland
4. Finland
5. Sweden
5. Norway
5. Denmark
8. Luxembourg
8. Estonia
10. Netherlands
10. Canada

2022 Most Oppressive Countries:

1. North Korea
2. Venezuela
3. Syria
4. Eritrea
4. Libya
4. Sudan
4. Cuba
8. Turkmenistan
8. Iran
8. Yemen

2022 Five Year Change in Liberty. Blue is an increase in rank by >20 and green >10 since 2018. Orange is a fall in rank of >10 and red >20 since 2018.

2022 Greatest 5 Year Increase:

1. Ecuador
2. The Gambia
3. Djibouti
4. Sao Tome y Principe
4. Togo
6. Moldova
7. Kiribati
7. Uzbekistan
9. Barbados
9. Timor-Leste
9. Ukraine
9. Kazakhstan

2022 Greatest 5 Year Decrease:

1. Nicaragua
2. Hong Kong
3. Tanzania
4. India
5. Comoros
6. Singapore
7. Georgia
7. Philippines
7. Israel
7. Zimbabwe
7. Lebanon

2022 Conservative-Progressive Ranking. Grouped by Quintile, red is very conservative, pink is conservative, yellow is moderate, light blue is progressive, and blue is very progressive.

The below graphs the amount of liberty enjoyed by the average citizen of a state (x-axis) by the balance of whether the state more heavily regulates economic or social behaviors (y-axis).

2022 Most Conservative:

1. Bahrain
2. Singapore
3. United Arab Emirates
4. Saudi Arabia
5. Hong Kong
5. Azerbaijan
5. Belarus
8. Turkmenistan
9. Somalia
10. Uzbekistan

2022 Most Progressive:

1. Argentina
2. Dominica
3. Kiribati
4. Belize
5. Micronesia
5. Suriname
5. Barbados
8. Solomon Islands
9. St. Lucia
9. St. Vincent and the Grenadines
9. Timor-Leste

The Failures and Dangers of John Mearsheimer's Ukraine Argument

March 7, 2022 by Patrick Rhamey

This post has migrated! A revised post can be found at https://www.duckofminerva.com/2022/03/the-invasion-of-ukraine-is-russias-fault%ef%bf%bc.html

Week 14 Network Ranking

December 5, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

The network doesn’t suffer from recency bias like the committee will, nor conference politics. It also doesn’t treat conference championship games as special. For the network ranking, beating an undefeated Georgia team is an equally important piece of information for the network as losing to Texas A&M.

Looking at just the cumulative quality of the wins, Alabama’s are less impressive than Notre Dame, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Georgia (in that order). Their loss to Texas A&M is worse than Michigan, Georgia, and Notre Dame’s losses (in order of most to least bad), and of course Cincinnati is undefeated.

Thusly, if we wanted to send the 4 teams with the best total body of work, treating all games equally (which is not what the committee will do), Alabama doesn’t deserve to go. That doesn’t mean they aren’t good or that they won’t win, only that their body of work is inferior, even if they won the SEC. Nick Saban of course know this is how the system works, which is why he schedules Mercer, New Mexico State, and Southern Miss in the same season. Sorry Notre Dame!

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking):

Cincinnati (+2)
Notre Dame (-1)
Georgia (-1)
Michigan (nc)
Alabama (+1)
Ohio State (+1)
Oklahoma State (-2)
Ole Miss (nc)
Michigan State (+1)
Baylor (+2)
Oklahoma (nc)
Iowa (-3)
Arkansas (+1)
Oregon (+1)
BYU (+1)
Texas A&M (+3)
Houston (+1)
Wake Forest (-5)
Wisconsin (+1)
San Diego State (-3)
Kentucky (+1)
UTSA (+1)
Pittsburgh
Clemson (-3)
Louisiana (-1)

What would the bowls look like if the Network Ranking decided?

College Football Playoff 1: Cincinnati v Michigan
College Football Playoff 2: Notre Dame v Georgia
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State v Oregon
Citrus Bowl: Ole Miss v Michigan State
Alamo Bowl: Baylor v UCLA
Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma v Wake Forest
Outback Bowl: Iowa v Arkansas
Independence Bowl: UTSA v BYU
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M v Kansas State
Fenway Bowl: Houston v Pittsburgh
Las Vegas Bowl: Wisconsin v Utah
Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego State v Western Michigan
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Kentucky v Clemson
Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana v Northern Illinois
Music City Bowl: Purdue v Tennessee
Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State v NC State
New Mexico Bowl: Appalachian State v Air Force
Texas Bowl: Iowa State v Mississippi State
Armed Forces Bowl: Army v Texas Tech
Gator Bowl: South Carolina v Louisville
Birmingham Bowl: LSU v SMU
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: Boise State v Arizona State
New Orleans Bowl: Coastal Carolina v Western Kentucky
Gasparila Bowl: Florida v UCF
Arizona Bowl: Fresno State v Central Michigan
Hawaii Bowl: Utah State v East Carolina
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Maryland v West Virginia
Military Bowl: Miami v Tulsa
Holiday Bowl: Virginia v Washington State
RedBox Bowl: Minnesota v Oregon State
CureBowl: Nevada v Auburn
Sun Bowl: Boston College v Texas
First Responder Bowl: North Carolina v Missouri
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Memphis v Eastern Michigan
Boca Raton Bowl: Wyoming v Virginia Tech
Camellia Bowl: Toledo v Georgia State
LendingTree Bowl: Miami (OH) v Florida State
Frisco Bowl: Ball State v TCU

Week 13 Network Ranking

November 28, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

Going into the final week of the regular season, we’ve got a tightly knit top 3, followed by a clear favorite for #4. Much will come down to the conference championships, however. For Georgia, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Alabama, if they win their championship, they deserve the playoff. Oklahoma State, however, will need some help, as defeating Baylor won’t be enough. Oklahoma State will need to win and have Georgia beat Alabama as well as either Cincinnati or Michigan lose. If Alabama beats Georgia, Oklahoma State will need both Cincinnati and Michigan to lose, as both Georgia and Bama would deserve to go to the playoffs.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Notre Dame (+2)
Georgia (-1)
Cincinnati (-1)
Michigan (+1)
Oklahoma State (+3)
Alabama (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Ole Miss (+3)
Iowa (+3)
Michigan State (+3)
Oklahoma (-1)
Baylor (+2)
Wake Forest (+4)
Arkansas (+5)
Oregon (+1)
BYU (+2)
San Diego State (+5)
Houston (+2)
Texas A&M (-4)
Wisconsin (-11)
Clemson (+5)
Kentucky (+11)
UTSA (-19)
Louisiana (nc)
Purdue (nc)

Week 12 Network Ranking

November 21, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

A reshuffling of the top 4 this week with UGA, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame all very close. Georgia and Cincinnati in particular are in a precarious position, with each facing a strong opponent in their conference game. UTSA continues to squeak by with close wins, though the network doesn’t care about margins. Notre Dame only has Stanford left, so barring a catastrophe, they should be safe. But, if Cincinnati loses, that will impact Notre Dame as well, likely dropping them from the top 4 also.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Georgia (+1)
Cincinnati (+1)
Notre Dame (-2)
UTSA (nc)
Michigan (nc)
Ohio State (nc)
Alabama (+1)
Oklahoma State (-1)
Wisconsin (nc)
Oklahoma (+2)
Ole Miss (-1)
Iowa (+1)
Michigan State (-2)
Baylor (+4)
Texas A&M (+1)
Oregon (-2)
Wake Forest (-2)
BYU (+2)
Arkansas (-2)
Houston (+1)
Kansas State (-2)
San Diego State (nc)
Penn State (nc)
Louisiana (nc)
Purdue (nc)

Week 11 Network Ranking

November 16, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

Texas is not good at football.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking):

Notre Dame (nc)
Georgia (nc)
Cincinnati (nc)
UTSA (nc)
Michigan (+1)
Ohio State (+1)
Oklahoma State (+1)
Alabama (+1)
Wisconsin (+1)
Ole Miss (+1)
Michigan State (+2)
Oklahoma (-7)
Iowa (-1)
Oregon (nc)
Wake Forest (+3)
Texas A&M (-1)
Arkansas (-1)
Baylor (-1)
Kansas State (nc)
BYU (nc)
Houston (+1)
San Diego State (+4)
Penn State (nc)
Louisiana (-3)
Purdue (-1)

Week 10 Network Ranking

November 8, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

We lost some undefeateds last week. But perhaps most noteworthy, Notre Dame leapfrogged Georgia in the ranking. It has little to do with their win over Navy, however, but instead that teams they beat previously had some big wins. In particular, Purdue’s defeat of Michigan State has serious repercussions throughout the network and significantly launches Notre Dame’s win value. Furthermore, UNC beat undefeated Wake Forest, also improving the quality of Notre Dame’s record.

UTSA climbs above the lowest ranked undefeated, Oklahoma (just barely), highlighting how poor Oklahoma’s schedule is to this point. However, Oklahoma has much more significant teams remaining in their schedule, so will climb back above UTSA soon, likely after next week’s game with Baylor. Like Notre Dame, UTSA’s 4 spot jump has a lot to do with previous wins. Illinois beat Minnesota, and Memphis beat SMU.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Notre Dame +1
Georgia -1
Cincinnati +1
UTSA +4
Oklahoma (+1)
Michigan (-3)
Ohio State (+3)
Oklahoma State (+3)
Alabama (+3)
Wisconsin (+9)
Ole Miss (+4)
Iowa (+2)
Michigan State (-8)
Oregon (-1)
Texas A&M (+8)
Arkansas (+4)
Baylor (-8)
Wake Forest (-11)
Kansas State (+2)
BYU (-4)
Louisiana (+5)
Houston (+2)
Penn State (+7)
Purdue (+7)
Auburn (-8)

Week 9 Network Ranking

November 5, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

The network likes Michigan (and Notre Dame). Despite each team’s one loss, their cumulative wins overcome the cost of the loss (in both cases to an undefeated team) and keep them not only in the top 4, but above their victors. In Michigan/Michigan State’s case (and Ohio State), this will wash out as Big Ten play progresses, but for now, the Wolverines only drop one spot after their loss to Sparty (who gains 5).

Big gain for BYU, but not driven entirely by their win over 6-3 UVA. Utah’s defeat of UCLA and Washington State’s win over Arizona State both also help BYU climb the rankings.

Mirroring in some ways the CFP initial ranking this week, the undefeated non-power 5 teams are starting to slip given their weak schedules, unable to keep up with others in accumulating evidence of their “goodness.”

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Georgia (nc)
Notre Dame (+2)
Michigan (-1)
Cincinnati (-1)
Michigan State (+5)
Oklahoma (nc)
Wake Forest (-2)
UTSA (-1)
Baylor (+4)
Ohio State (+5)
Oklahoma State (+1)
Alabama (+5)
Oregon (+5)
Iowa (+2)
Ole Miss (-1)
BYU (+20)
Auburn (+2)
SMU (-7)
Wisconsin (+2)
Arkansas (+3)
Kansas State (+1)
Air Force (-2)
Texas A&M (+1)
Houston (+10)
San Diego State (-17)

Week 8 Network Ranking

October 24, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

Oklahoma State falls, clearing the way for 1 loss Notre Dame to enter the top 4.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Georgia (nc)
Michigan (+2)
Cincinnati (nc)
Notre Dame (+1)
Wake Forest (+5)
Oklahoma (nc)
UTSA (+2)
San Diego State (+4)
Kentucky (-1)
Michigan State (+1)
SMU (+2)
Oklahoma State (-10)
Baylor (-6)
Ole Miss (+2)
Ohio State (+2)
Iowa (+2)
Alabama (+2)
Oregon (+5)
Auburn (-4)
Air Force (+1)
Wisconsin (+21)
Kansas State (+12)
Arkansas (-1)
Texas A&M (+3)
Penn State (-5)

Week 7 Network Ranking

October 17, 2021 by Patrick Rhamey

No change in the top 2, while Cincinnati leaps into the top 4, followed by Michigan. Notre Dame climbs into number 5 with help from Purdue’s win over Iowa.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

Georgia (nc)
Oklahoma State (nc)
Cincinnati (+3)
Michigan (-1)
Notre Dame (+2)
Oklahoma (-1)
Baylor (+10)
Kentucky (nc)
UTSA (+2)
Wake Forest (nc)
Michigan State (+1)
San Diego State (+6)
SMU (nc)
Coastal Carolina (+23)
Auburn (nc)
Ole Miss (+6)
Ohio State (+2)
Iowa (-14)
Alabama (+4)
Penn State (-11)
Air Force (+7)
Arkansas (-2)
Oregon (+8)
Nevada (-8)
Louisiana (+24)