Network Ranking for Week 10

by Patrick Rhamey

First, Florida State had (yet another) bye week, so with their back loaded schedule they will climb late if they continue to win.  Once they provide more evidence, they'll rise, and while ranked sixth, the differences are marginal between Florida State, LSU and Alabama.  However, also remember, the best team Florida State has left to play is Miami.  While they've played two fewer games than Mississippi State, they also don't have anyone good left (unlike Mississippi State who still has to play both Ole Miss and Alabama).

The selection committee will come out with their rankings on Tuesday.  They will not mirror my top 4 not because mine are inaccurate, but because of politics.  They can't get away with the top four (actually five) all being from the SEC West. 

However, given the evidence we have so far, the top five teams in college football are all in the SEC West.

If you're wondering why Ole Miss didn't fall far, it's because while they did lose to LSU (resulting in a -2 to their win-loss score), LSU's losses aren't all that bad given they've only lost to undefeated Mississippi State and 1 loss Auburn (who only lost to undefeated Mississippi State).  Ole Miss can essentially wipe clean the effect of these losses (which isn't much compared to say, Nebraska, losing to Sparty losing to Oregon losing to Arizona losing to USC losing to Utah, BC, and Arizona State, etc.) by beating State in the Egg Bowl.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss's wins continue to become more powerful evidence of their goodness - obviously Alabama continuing to win is the largest component, but also Boise State beating a decent BYU and ULL doing  the same to Arkansas State.  As a result, the Rebels fall two spots, but hang in the top 4.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

  1. Mississippi State
  2. Auburn
  3. Ole Miss
  4. Alabama
  5. LSU
  6. Florida State
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Kansas State
  9. TCU
  10. Marshall
  11. Oklahoma
  12. Texas A&M
  13. Baylor
  14. West Virginia
  15. Louisiana Tech
  16. Oklahoma State
  17. Nebraska
  18. Michigan State
  19. Oregon
  20. Georgia
  21. UCLA
  22. Clemson
  23. Arizona State
  24. Colorado State
  25. Arizona

 

Network Ranking for Week 9

by Patrick Rhamey

Alabama jumps into the three spot while Auburn drops down to 5 (Auburn didn't play, Alabama did, think about it conceptually like a horse race to accumulate evidence).  For those of you wondering why Florida State didn't move up in the network after defeating Notre Dame, it's because the value of Florida State's other wins took a pretty big hit this week - Oklahoma State lost to TCU, NC State lost to Louisville (who Florida State doesn't play until next week), and Wake lost to Syracuse who Florida State already beat (as did Notre Dame so it's redundant). Notre Dame's wins aren't adding much to Florida State either.  The best one is Stanford, who lost to Arizona State this week. 

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking):

  1. Ole Miss
  2. Mississippi State
  3. Alabama
  4. Florida State
  5. Auburn
  6. Notre Dame
  7. TCU
  8. Kansas State
  9. Marshall
  10. Oklahoma
  11. LSU
  12. Baylor
  13. Texas A&M
  14. Minnesota
  15. West Virginia
  16. Oklahoma State
  17. Oregon
  18. Louisiana Tech
  19. Nebraska
  20. Georgia
  21. Michigan State
  22. UCLA
  23. Clemson
  24. Arizona
  25. Colorado State

 

 

Network Ranking for Week 7

by Patrick Rhamey

Forget the Iron Bowl, the biggest regular season game this year will be the Egg Bowl.


Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

  1. Ole Miss
  2. Mississippi State
  3. Arizona
  4. Auburn
  5. Texas A&M
  6. TCU
  7. Oregon
  8. Georgia Tech
  9. Alabama
  10. Oklahoma
  11. California
  12. Florida State
  13. Michigan State
  14. UCLA
  15. Florida
  16. Notre Dame
  17. Nebraska
  18. Penn State
  19. Marshall
  20. Baylor
  21. Northwestern
  22. Boise State
  23. Air Force
  24. Northern Illinois
  25. Kentucky


Network Ranking for Week 6

by Patrick Rhamey

After a big win against Arizona State, UCLA jumps to the number one spot while Texas A&M jumps to two after a solid win against Arkansas.  Auburn and Nebraska move into third and fourth while Oklahoma, Mississippi State, and Alabama are stagnant from a bye week.  Florida State continues to lack enough evidence to be in the top spot, but climbs to 17 after their win over NC State.

Top 25 - Explanation of Method; Full Ranking (.xlsx)

  1. UCLA
  2. Texas A&M
  3. Auburn
  4. Nebraska
  5. Ole Miss
  6. Alabama
  7. Mississippi State
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Arizona
  10. Oregon
  11. Brigham Young
  12. Marshall
  13. LSU
  14. Minnesota
  15. Baylor
  16. Penn State
  17. Florida State
  18. TCU
  19. California
  20. Kansas State
  21. Arkansas
  22. Michigan State
  23. Iowa
  24. Wyoming
  25. Maryland

Network Ranking for Week 5

by Patrick Rhamey

Following the completion of week 4, all FBS teams are connected to one another through either wins or losses, allowing for the first Network Ranking of the 2014 season.  An explanation of how this simple, intuitive, and obviously best ranking method is generated can be found here.  

While the AP poll has not yet been released, no doubt the most dramatic difference will be the placement of Florida State.  While the media will continue to rank Florida State #1 (due to their biases, including the Seminole's performance last year), the network ranking, which blindly evaluates the quality of wins minus the severity of losses within a season, ranks Florida State at #25.  Why? Because their wins are against Oklahoma State, who has only beaten UTSA (who beat Houston, who beat UNLV, who hasn't won an FBS game), and Clemson, who has yet to win against an FBS opponent.  If Florida State continues to win, and their opponents perform well, they'll climb in the rankings.  But, since the Network Ranking is evidence based and not speculation based, Florida State will have to earn their number 1 spot.

Top 25 - Full Ranking (.xls)

  1. Oklahoma
  2. Mississippi State
  3. Alabama
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Auburn
  6. UCLA
  7. Brigham Young
  8. South Carolina
  9. Penn State
  10. Georgia Tech
  11. Arizona
  12. Oregon
  13. North Carolina State
  14. Nebraska
  15. Washington
  16. Ole Miss
  17. Notre Dame
  18. Duke
  19. LSU
  20. Marshall
  21. Arizona State
  22. Arkansas
  23. TCU
  24. Boise State
  25. Florida State

 

MLB Ranking - May 18

by Patrick Rhamey

Ranking of Team-Starting Pitcher Combinations using network analysis (full ranking here):

  1. White Sox - Rienzo
  2. Marlins - Slowey
  3. A's - Pomeranz
  4. Angels - Shoemaker
  5. Marlins - DeSclafani
  6. Diamondbacks - Anderson
  7. Angels - Skaggs
  8. Tigers - Scherzer
  9. Blue Jays - Buehrle
  10. A's - Kazmir
  11. Yankees - Tanaka
  12. Brewers - Lohse
  13. Orioles - Tillman
  14. A's - Gray
  15. Blue Jays - Happ
  16. Tigers - Verlander
  17. Dodgers - Haren
  18. Tigers - Porcello
  19. Angels - Richards
  20. Nationals - Strasburg
  21. Twins - Hughes
  22. A's - Chavez
  23. Twins - Deduno
  24. Braves - Teheran

Ranking of MLB Teams by average rank of all Team - Pitcher Combinations:

  1. Blue Jays (+16)
  2. Angels (+1)
  3. Marlins (+3)
  4. Brewers (-3)
  5. Giants (-3)
  6. Twins (+9)
  7. Tigers (+5)
  8. A's (nc)
  9. Braves (+1)
  10. Royals (+15)
  11. Padres (+12)
  12. Red Sox (+4)
  13. White Sox (+15)
  14. Yankees (-5)
  15. Rockies (-9)
  16. Phillies (+3)
  17. Orioles (+1)
  18. Nationals (+4)
  19. Indians (+10)
  20. Diamondbacks (+4)
  21. Mets (-14)
  22. Mariners (-8)
  23. Rays (+7)
  24. Reds (-11)
  25. Dodgers (-20)
  26. Cardinals (-6)
  27. Cubs (-16)
  28. Rangers (-2)
  29. Pirates (-2)
  30. Astros (-9)

 

2014 State of World Liberty Index

by Patrick Rhamey

The State of World Liberty Index was a combination of indices compiled originally in 2006.  Since then, I've periodically updated the index.  My methodology is similar to the original with the following exceptions: I use only the civil liberties portion of the Freedom House, economic liberty (Fraser/Heritage) is weighted evenly with social liberty, and the Reporters without Borders Press Freedom Scores are of equal weight to each of the Freedom House Civil Liberties sub-components.  All changes are done with the purpose of creating the most accurate relative ranking of countries by the degree of liberty (economic and social) enjoyed by the average individual within the polity.  Where data is available, territories or colonies (e.g. Hong Kong) are included.   

2014 Freedom by Quintile.  Colors represent countries grouped by quintiles in order of Blue (top 20%), Green (20-40%), Yellow (40-60%), Orange (60-80%), and Red (80-100%).

2014 Most Free Countries:

1.  Liechtenstein
2. New Zealand
3. Switzerland
3. Hong Kong
5. Canada
5. Finland
7. Australia
8. Denmark
8. Luxembourg
10. Netherlands
10. Ireland
10. Norway
10. Sweden
10. Estonia

2014 Most Tyrannical States:

1. North Korea
2. Somalia
3. Syria
4. Eritrea
5. Cuba
6. Turkmenistan
7. Uzbekistan
8. Iran
8. Zimbabwe
8. Central African Republic
8. Democratic Republic of Congo
8. Myanmar

2014 Greatest Increases in Liberty:

1. Cote d'Ivoire
2. Tunisia
2. Lesotho
4. Georgia
5. Guyana
5. Colombia
7. Ecuador
8. Senegal
8. Mauritania
8. Mali

2014 Greatest Increases in Tyranny:

1.  Central African Republic
2. Tajikistan
2. Guatemala
2. Argentina
5. Kuwait
5. Kenya
7. Montenegro
7. Vanuatu
9. Swaziland
10. Yemen
10. Cabo Verde

MLB Ranking - May 4

by Patrick Rhamey

Ranking of team-starting pitcher combinations using network analysis (download full ranking here):

  1. Angels - Skaggs (+3)
  2. Rangers - Perez (-1)
  3. A's - Kazmir (+9)
  4. A's - Chavez (+2)
  5. Marlins - Slowey (+5)
  6. Mariners - Iwakuma (n/a)
  7. Giants - Petit (n/a)
  8. Astros - McHugh (+5)
  9. Astros - Peacock (+82)
  10. Cubs - Arrieta (n/a)
  11. Brewers - Peralta (-6)
  12. Dodgers - Greinke (-5)
  13. Tigers - Verlander (+7)
  14. Nationals - Strasburg (+5)
  15. Braves - Teheran (nc)
  16. Nationals - Gonzalez (+9)
  17. Orioles - Tillman (nc)
  18. Brewers - Lohse (+20)
  19. Rockies - Morales (+32)
  20. Yankees - Tanaka (+19)
  21. Rangers - Darvish (-19)
  22. Giants - Vogelsong (+93)
  23. Tigers - Scherzer (+12)
  24. Cubs - Hammel (+81)
  25. Dodgers - Haren (+18)

Ranking of all MLB Teams by average rank of team-starting pitcher combo:

  1. Brewers (nc)
  2. Giants (+20)
  3. Angels (+5)
  4. Marlins (+2)
  5. Dodgers (+15)
  6. Rockies (+20)
  7. Mets (-4)
  8. A's (-1)
  9. Yankees (-5)
  10. Braves (-8)
  11. Cubs (+19)
  12. Tigers (-1)
  13. Reds (+4)
  14. Mariners (+13)
  15. Twins (-3)
  16. Red Sox (-7)
  17. Blue Jays (-7)
  18. Orioles (-3)
  19. Phillies (-5)
  20. Cardinals (-7)
  21. Astros (-1)
  22. Nationals (-17)
  23. Padres (-7)
  24. Diamondbacks (+5)
  25. Royals (nc)
  26. Rangers (-8)
  27. Pirates (-6)
  28. White Sox  (-5)
  29. Indians (-5)
  30. Rays (-2)

 

 

MLB Ranking - April 27

by Patrick Rhamey

Ranking of all MLB Team-Starting Pitcher Combinations subtracting centrality to the network of wins minus centrality to the network of losses (similar to the College Football ranking below).

  1. Rangers - Perez
  2. Rangers - Darvish
  3. Braves - Santana
  4. Angels - Skaggs
  5. Brewers - Peralta
  6. A's - Chavez
  7. Dodgers - Greinke
  8. Mets - Mejia
  9. Arizona - Miley
  10. Marlins - Slowley
  11. Marlins - Turner
  12. A's - Kazmir
  13. Astros - McHugh
  14. Yankees - Nuno
  15. Braves - Teheran
  16. Indians - McAllister
  17. Orioles - Tillman
  18. Brewers - Gallardo
  19. Nationals - Strasburg
  20. Tigers - Verlander
  21. Devil Rays - Price
  22. Brewers - Estrada
  23. Cardinals - Wainwright
  24. Marlins - Koehler
  25. Nationals - Gonzalez

(Full List in Excel)

MLB Ranking Based on Average Team Rank:

  1. Brewers
  2. Braves
  3. Mets
  4. Yankees
  5. Nationals
  6. Marlins
  7. A's
  8. Angels
  9. Red Sox
  10. Blue Jays
  11. Tigers
  12. Twins
  13. Cardinals
  14. Phillies
  15. Orioles
  16. Padres
  17. Reds
  18. Rangers
  19. Dodgers
  20. Astros
  21. Pirates
  22. Giants
  23. White Sox
  24. Indians
  25. Royals
  26. Rockies
  27. Mariners
  28. Devil Rays
  29. Diamondbacks
  30. Cubs

Post-Bowl Ranking

by Patrick Rhamey

Obviously no change in the Top 2.  UCF and Clemson join the top 5 as Alabama and South Carolina fall out.  Big jump into the top 25 by Nebraska following their win over Georgia in the Gator Bowl.

 

Top 25 (Full Rankings; Explanation)

  1. Florida State (nc)
  2. Auburn (nc)
  3. Missouri (+1)
  4. UCF (+2)
  5. Clemson (+2)
  6. Alabama (-3)
  7. South Carolina (-2)
  8. Louisville (+8)
  9. Oklahoma (+5)
  10. Texas A&M (+1)
  11. Oregon (+1)
  12. Ohio State (-3)
  13. Michigan State (+7)
  14. LSU (-4)
  15. UCLA (+2)
  16. Baylor (-1)
  17. Ole Miss (+1)
  18. Stanford (-5)
  19. Georgia (-11)
  20. Vanderbilt (+2)
  21. Mississippi State (+8)
  22. Washington (+11)
  23. Oklahoma State (nc)
  24. Notre Dame (+7)
  25. Nebraska (+11)

Final Network Rankings of the 2013 Regular Season

by Patrick Rhamey

The BCS is likely to echo the final network rankings, at least as far as 1 and 2 are concerned.  Interestingly, as an example of why how you think and rank matters so greatly, there would likely be stark differences between how the network rankings v. the BCS v. a selection committee would think about Bowl selection beyond the national championship and/or playoff seeding.  For example, the network rankings claim that of the top 4 teams, 3 of them are in the SEC.  Intuitively quite reasonable to many people, but I strongly doubt a selection committee is going to let 3 teams from the same conference go to a playoff, even if they've earned it.  As a comparison to what will be released later today, below today's rankings I've included a BCS Bowl slotting using the current BCS rules, selection order, and program revenue.

Also interesting about this week is the network rankings' responsiveness to new evidence.  We see NIU drop from 3 last week to 27 this week with the loss to a very bad Bowling Green team.  Likewise, Ohio State falls from 2 to 9 losing to a Michigan State team that the network rankings have never held higher than the top 20.

Final Regular Season Top 25 (Explanation; Full Rankings)

  1. Florida State (nc)
  2. Auburn (+3)
  3. Alabama (+1)
  4. Missouri (+2)
  5. South Carolina (+2)
  6. UCF (+4)
  7. Clemson (+1)
  8. Georgia (+1)
  9. Ohio State (-7)
  10. LSU (+1)
  11. Texas A&M (+1)
  12. Oregon (+1)
  13. Stanford (+1)
  14. Oklahoma (+4)
  15. Baylor (nc)
  16. Louisville (+1)
  17. UCLA (-1)
  18. Ole Miss (+1)
  19. Miami (+1)
  20. Michigan State (+8)
  21. Arizona State (nc)
  22. Vanderbilt (+1)
  23. Oklahoma State (-1)
  24. Duke (nc)
  25. Wisconsin (+1)

Network Ranking Bowl Selection:
BCS National Championship: Florida State v. Auburn
Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v. UCF

Network Ranking Playoff Seeding:
Game 1: Florida State v. Missouri
Game 2: Auburn v. Alabama
 

Network Rankings for Week 15

by Patrick Rhamey

Eventually I'll get around to addressing the NIU issue.  Simply put, NIU 2013>NIU 2012 and MAC 2013>MAC 2012, and there's plenty of evidence to prove it.  A lot of it is about not losing to Iowa, and Iowa being less terrible than last year.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

  1. Florida State (+1)
  2. Ohio State (+2)
  3. Northern Illinois (+2)
  4. Alabama (-3)
  5. Auburn (+1)
  6. Missouri (+2)
  7. South Carolina (+4)
  8. Clemson (-5)
  9. Georgia (+3)
  10. UCF (+3)
  11. LSU (-1)
  12. Texas A&M (-3)
  13. Oregon (+2)
  14. Stanford (+6)
  15. Baylor (+2)
  16. UCLA (+5)
  17. Louisville (+2)
  18. Oklahoma (-2)
  19. Ole Miss (-5)
  20. Miami (+2)
  21. Arizona State (+5)
  22. Oklahoma State (+9)
  23. Vanderbilt (+5)
  24. Duke (-1)
  25. Iowa (+7)

Network Rankings for Week 14

by Patrick Rhamey

Few big changes, though Baylor falls from the top 10.  Northern Illinois arrives in the top 5.  I hope to have a post soon comparing NIU this year to NIU last year (very different set of issues).

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Rankings)

  1. Alabama (nc)
  2. Florida State (nc)
  3. Clemson (nc)
  4. Ohio State (nc)
  5. Northern Illinois (+1)
  6. Auburn (+1)
  7. Fresno State (+1)
  8. Missouri (+3)
  9. Texas A&M (nc)
  10. LSU (+4)
  11. South Carolina (+1)
  12. Georgia (+3)
  13. UCF (+3)
  14. Ole Miss (-4)
  15. Oregon (-2)
  16. Oklahoma (+3)
  17. Baylor (-12)
  18. Wisconsin (+2)
  19. Louisville (+2)
  20. Stanford (-2)
  21. UCLA (-4)
  22. Miami (+2)
  23. Duke (nc)
  24. Notre Dame (+9)
  25. Michigan State (+3)

Network Rankings Week 13

by Patrick Rhamey

Added Change from previous week in parentheses below (note, Auburn's win over Georgia is cancelled out partially from the Auburn -> UGA -> LSU -> Auburn win pathway).  No change in the top 5.

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

  1. Alabama (nc)
  2. Florida State (nc)
  3. Clemson (nc)
  4. Ohio State (nc)
  5. Baylor (nc)
  6. Northern Illinois (+1)
  7. Auburn (-1)
  8. Fresno State (nc)
  9. Texas A&M (nc)
  10. Ole Miss (+2)
  11. Missouri (-1)
  12. South Carolina (+4)
  13. Oregon (-2)
  14. LSU (+4)
  15. Georgia (-2)
  16. UCF (+3)
  17. UCLA (nc)
  18. Stanford (-2)
  19. Oklahoma (+2)
  20. Wisconsin (+2)
  21. Louisville (+3)
  22. Michigan (+9)
  23. Duke (+2)
  24. Miami (-4)
  25. USC (+10)

Network Rankings Week 12

by Patrick Rhamey

No surprises here on 1 and 2, but some big changes in the rest of the top 25.  NIU and Fresno State make big jumps into the top 10.  Buffalo, only having lost to two undefeated teams (Baylor and Ohio State), jumps into the top 25 as it continues to win.  Nebraska makes a huge gain after defeating Michigan, and Duke climbs into the top 25.

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Top 25 (Explanation; Full Ranking)

  1. Alabama
  2. Florida State
  3. Clemson
  4. Ohio State
  5. Baylor
  6. Auburn
  7. Northern Illinois
  8. Fresno State
  9. Texas A&M
  10. Missouri
  11. Oregon
  12. Ole Miss
  13. Georgia
  14. Buffalo
  15. South Carolina
  16. Stanford
  17. UCLA
  18. LSU
  19. UCF
  20. Miami
  21. Oklahoma
  22. Nebraska
  23. Louisville
  24. Duke
  25. Arizona State

 

Network Rankings for Week 11

by Patrick Rhamey
  • Florida State jumps over Oregon for #2 after a good win against Miami while Oregon is on a bye.
  • Post Tuesday on CFBTN comparing the Oregon and Florida State Networks
  • Rankings for Week 12 will be delayed one day to Monday, November 12.

Top 25 (Explanation; Complete Rankings)

  1. Alabama
  2. Florida State
  3. Oregon
  4. Clemson
  5. Miami
  6. Auburn
  7. Ohio State
  8. Missouri
  9. South Carolina
  10. Georgia
  11. Texas A&M
  12. Baylor
  13. LSU
  14. Northern Illinois
  15. Ole Miss
  16. UCF
  17. Fresno State
  18. Tennessee
  19. Florida
  20. Louisville
  21. Vanderbilt
  22. Oklahoma
  23. Stanford
  24. UCLA
  25. Notre Dame

 

Network Rankings for Week 10

by Patrick Rhamey

Florida State climbs into the three spot as Missouri falls to South Carolina.  

Top 25 (Explanation; Full Rankings)

  1. Alabama
  2. Oregon
  3. Florida State
  4. Clemson
  5. Miami
  6. Auburn
  7. Ohio State
  8. Missouri
  9. Texas A&M
  10. Georgia
  11. South Carolina
  12. LSU
  13. Baylor
  14. Ole Miss
  15. Northern Illinois
  16. UCF
  17. Fresno State
  18. Tennessee
  19. Florida
  20. Louisville
  21. Vanderbilt
  22. Oklahoma
  23. Stanford
  24. Oregon State* 
  25. Michigan

*FCS loss not included in network


 

Network Rankings for Week 9 - The LSU/UGA Collapse

by Patrick Rhamey

As I discussed last week, necessary for "outsider" teams like Bama and Oregon to move up would be a collapse of the strong win network built upon Georgia and LSU.  Sure enough, with Vanderbilt and Ole Miss wins, the whole thing comes crashing down, doing damage to Missouri, Clemson, and now also Florida State.  The title of most impressive wins goes now to Alabama.  Ole Miss, Fresno State, Texas Tech, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt enter the top 25.

Week 9 Rankings (Explanation; Full Rankings)

  1. Alabama
  2. Oregon
  3. Missouri
  4. Florida State
  5. Clemson
  6. Miami
  7. Oregon State* 
  8. Auburn
  9. Georgia
  10. LSU
  11. Baylor
  12. Ohio State
  13. Ole Miss
  14. Virginia Tech
  15. Texas A&M
  16. South Carolina
  17. Fresno State
  18. UCF
  19. Northern Illinois
  20. Pittsburgh
  21. Texas Tech
  22. Tennessee
  23. Florida
  24. Vanderbilt
  25. Louisville

 * Loss to FCS team not included in the network